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CHINA IS THREATENING ECONOMIC WARFARE
IF THE US IMPOSES IMPORT TARIFFS. THIS REPORT APPEARED IN THE
FOREIGN PRESS AUGUST 8, 2007 AND IS VERY SERIOUS.
From the Telegraph.CO.UK
China threatens 'nuclear option' of dollar sales By Ambrose Evans-Pritchard
Telegraph.co.uk
August 8, 2007
The
Chinese government has begun a concerted campaign of economic threats
against the United States, hinting that it may liquidate its vast
holding of US treasuries if Washington imposes trade sanctions to force
a yuan revaluation.
Two
officials at leading Communist Party bodies have given interviews in
recent days warning - for the first time - that Beijing may use its
$1.33 trillion (£658bn) of foreign reserves as a political weapon to
counter pressure from the US Congress.
Shifts in Chinese policy are often announced through key think tanks and academies.
Described
as China's "nuclear option" in the state media, such action could
trigger a dollar crash at a time when the US currency is already
breaking down through historic support levels.
It would also cause a spike in US bond yields,
hammering the US housing market and perhaps tipping the economy into
recession. It is estimated that China holds over $900bn in a mix of US
bonds.
Xia Bin, finance chief at the Development Research
Centre (which has cabinet rank), kicked off what now appears to be
government policy with a comment last week that Beijing's foreign
reserves should be used as a "bargaining chip" in talks with the US.
"Of course, China doesn't want any undesirable phenomenon in the global financial order," he added.
He
Fan, an official at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, went even
further today, letting it be known that Beijing had the power to set
off a dollar collapse if it choose to do so.
"China has accumulated a large sum of US dollars.
Such a big sum, of which a considerable portion is in US treasury
bonds, contributes a great deal to maintaining the position of the
dollar as a reserve currency. Russia, Switzerland, and several other
countries have reduced the their dollar holdings.
"China is unlikely to follow suit as long as the
yuan's exchange rate is stable against the dollar. The Chinese central
bank will be forced to sell dollars once the yuan appreciated
dramatically, which might lead to a mass depreciation of the dollar,"
he told China Daily.
The threats play into the presidential electoral
campaign of Hillary Clinton, who has called for restrictive legislation
to prevent America being "held hostage to economic decisions being made
in Beijing, Shanghai, or Tokyo".
She said foreign control over 44% of the US national debt had left America acutely vulnerable.
Simon
Derrick, a currency strategist at the Bank of New York Mellon, said the
comments were a message to the US Senate as Capitol Hill prepares
legislation for the Autumn session.
"The words are alarming and unambiguous. This
carries a clear political threat and could have very serious
consequences at a time when the credit markets are already afraid of
contagion from the subprime troubles," he said.
A bill drafted by a group of US senators, and
backed by the Senate Finance Committee, calls for trade tariffs against
Chinese goods as retaliation for alleged currency manipulation.
The yuan has appreciated 9% against the dollar
over the last two years under a crawling peg but it has failed to halt
the rise of China's trade surplus, which reached $26.9bn in June.
Henry Paulson, the US Treasury Secretary, said any
such sanctions would undermine American authority and "could trigger a
global cycle of protectionist legislation".
Mr. Paulson is a China expert from his days as
head of Goldman Sachs. He has opted for a softer form of diplomacy, but
appeared to win few concession from Beijing on a unscheduled trip to
China last week aimed at calming the waters.
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